在今年市场有所回暖的背景下,韩国造船业回升势头明显,韩企在VLCC、VLOC、FSRU、超大型箱船、气船等领域均有建树,三大船企也扭亏为盈,不知此轮春风能否解冻造船业的“寒冬”。 “势头猛”刷新接单纪录 据克拉克森数据,2017年9月份全球新造船市场迎来新造订单小高峰,中日韩三国均有不同程度的涨幅,截止到9月底,今年全球共成交573艘、1593.5万CGT,以CGT计已经超过2016年全年成交量的两成多。韩国表现较为抢眼,目前共成交133艘、503.9万CGT,全球占比31.6%。其中,韩国船企9月份单月成交量为145.5万CGT,创造了自2015年5月以来的单月最高接单纪录。 韩国三大船企功不可没,合计成交123艘、492.6万CGT,占韩国船企总成交量的97.8%。其中,现代重工集团(包括现代尾浦造船和现代三湖重工)表现最为抢眼,成交83艘、276.4万CGT,包含VLOC、VLCC、FSRU以及少量散货船和气船等船型,油船占比超过一半;三星重工成交19艘、92万CGT,包含超大型箱船、油船和气船,箱船占比近一半;大宇造船海洋成交21艘、124.2万CGT,主要为VLCC、箱船和气船,VLCC占比超四成。 “暖风到”但还不够强 盈利还需靠“老本撑” 在三季度数据未出的情况下,预测现代重工三季度的销售额为4.34万亿韩元(约合35.1亿美元),营业利润为945亿韩元;三星重工三季度的销售额和营业利润分别为1.81万亿韩元(约合14.6亿美元)和318亿韩元。两家公司能够改善经营状况仍源于非核心资产出售等降本增效的措施,预计现代重工和三星重工三季度的销售额将同比下降54.4%和34.7%,营业利润将同比下滑70.6%和62.2%。 此外,仍处于非正常经营状态的大宇造船海洋三季度因为高附加值的LNG船完成交付,预计有数千亿韩元的营业利润进账,但销售额和营业利润预测同比仍为减少。 开工不足困境难脱 韩国三大造船企业通过一段时间高强度的结构调整与成本节省,营业业绩出现好转,但是开工量不足导致的闲置人力仍然较为严重,销售额与纯利润照比往年大幅减少。在这种情况下,由于固定成本负担加剧,新造船价持续低位运行,收益性难有改善。现代重工手持订单不足的情况越来越严峻,造船部门已有600余名职员开始连续5周的轮休,11个船坞中3个处于停工状态,下半年预计将有5000余名工人(包含外协)处于无工可做的境地。三星重工在已停工两个船坞的情况下,正与工会探讨工人循环休假的事宜,而大宇造船海洋则从年初开始就实行了无薪休假。由此可见,韩国中小船企的情况将更加严峻。 “远水”解不了“近渴” 英国克拉克森数据,9月份船价指数为124,从去年5月以来,连续16个月维持在120点附件的低位。同时,新接订单减少导致了销售额下降,而开工不足导致固定成本开支增加和新船价格处于低位又给盈利带来了负面影响。除非船厂能够获得大量新船订单,否则这种低利甚至亏损的状态将持续至第四季度。三大船企今年年底和明年年初还有大量的到期债务,虽有大规模订单的收入,但由于造船业特殊的性质,一般在接单后1-2年内才会反映在纯利润上,所以财务问题仍是船厂不可回避的重要问题。 解冻还需“挺住”+“外援” 企业自身继续大力实行降本增效措施,而中小船企则急需依靠政府订单援助。 金融支持成“救命稻草” 金融支持多说两句,在经历了多年市场低迷期之后,不管是船企,还是航运企业,在“钱”的问题都遇到了难题。在面对市场为数不多的新船订单时,船厂能否为船东 “找到钱”(提供资金解决方案)成为了是否在该船厂下单的重要因素。

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