BIMCO预测2018年散货船运力增幅1%左右,这是自1999年以来的最低增长速度,而市场需求或提高5%,2018年全年散货船市场需求将超过供应增长。这意味着散货船船东终于有了喘息的机会,同时散货船新造船市场和中国船厂也都将迎来“暖冬”。 2018年全年散货船市场需求将超过供应增长 BIMCO近日发布报告表示,由于散货船船队预计将以2019年预期的需求增长速度增长,因此未来散货船市场发展重点必须以提高基本平衡为前提。 2017年中国大宗商品的进口量特别是煤炭和铁矿石的进口量大幅增长。2017年下半年多家散货船船东及运营公司开始盈利。如果2018年实现类似的需求增长(如提高5%),那么散运业将在明年有利可图。 BIMCO指出,这是自2012年以来散运业首次达到行业平均水平。该机构预测,2017年全年市场需求增长将达到5%,船队运力增长将达到3%,散运市场基本面有所改善。 12月12日,好望角型散货船运费突破30000美元大关,创下四年新高。在2017年第三季度,各种类型的散货船运价均有所提升,市场上运营的船舶在第三季度成功盈利。目前现货市场上部署的散货船租金已经能够覆盖成本。 新加坡Lorentzen & Stemoco的董事总经理Keith Denholm近日表示,干散货航运市场前景乐观。他指出,散运市场有一个稳定增长的轨迹,钢价飞涨,原料价格相对较低,中国缺乏优质焦煤和铁矿石,进口量将会继续增长。大量此前闲置的船舶现在正在回归市场。 同样的在干散货航运市场领域,Caravel集团首席运营官Angad Banga表示,市场基本面有所改善。Banga表示,煤炭和谷物运输显著增长,中国的潜在需求强劲。 不过,BIMCO首席航运分析师Peter Sand同时强调,控制船队的增长水平和加速拆除过剩运力是2018年市场复苏的关键因素。2018年散货船市场复苏可能不会像2017年那么强劲,如果持续的复苏没有得到妥善处理,那么散运公司将推迟至2019年才能获得利润。 然而,目前散货船市场上拆船活动疲软,散货船船队不断增长,这可能会阻碍市场复苏。由于2018年船队增幅预计为1%左右,目前市场重点转向保持减速航行。如果船舶平均航速明显提高,那么市场复苏将会放缓。他补充称,随着业务量季节性下滑,散运业已进行了一系列拆解活动,从而避免运价长时间下滑。

数据来源:克拉克森 散货船船价上涨,新造船市场全面启动 散货船市场逐步复苏的同时,散货船船价已经开始上涨,而散货船新造船市场已经全面启动,新船订单已经大幅增长。 克拉克森最新数据显示,11月份散货船新船价格除灵便型散货船新船价格持平10月外,其余各船型新船价格环比均有所上升,其中好望角型散货船、巴拿马型散货船和大灵便型散货船新船价格分别上升100万美元、50万美元和50万美元至4400万美元、2500万美元和2400万美元,灵便型散货船新船价格为1975万美元。 数据显示,今年前11月散货船新船订单211艘,共计24118473载重吨;而2016年全年散货船订单仅55艘,14006437载重吨,同比大幅增长,其中近70%的散货船订单被中国船厂接获。 船舶经纪公司Braemar ACM和Intermodal的数据显示,今年Ultramax型散货船是订单潮中最受欢迎的散货船船型之一。Intermodal表示,今年前11月,Ultramax型散货船新船订单量相比去年同期几乎增加了两倍。Ultramax型散货船订单量的涌现同样体现在船价方面,Ultramax型散货船造价增幅超过了任何其他的散货船船型造价,自今年1月以来增长了13%。截止11月,Ultramax型散货船造价已经达到约2500万美元,而2016年平均价格为2280万美元。 散货船市场的“寒冬”已经终结,中国船厂的“春天”已经提前到来。

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