新船订单继续增加,大量新船不断交付,在经历了2017年的供需再平衡之后,2018年集装箱船市场在双重压力下将成为动荡的一年。 Alphaliner指出,2017年集装箱船订单较上一年增加了140%,达到671641TEU。然而,由于交付量的增长和拆解量的减少,手持订单占现有船队比例从2016年末的15.7 %降至目前的12.6%。 Alphaliner预计,2018年集装箱船订单继续增加。包括现代商船、阳明海运在内的众多船东将与亚洲船厂签署建造合同,而一些非运营船东因为目前极具吸引力的新造船价格也仍旧热衷于建造新船。 实际上,现代商船、阳明海运及其他一些小型集运公司已明确表示,计划在2017年交易改善的情况下订造新船。现代商船总裁兼首席执行官CK Yoo已在新年贺词中重申了增长愿望,包括订购超大型集装箱船。该公司将继续考虑如何在2022年将船队规模从现有的34.7万TEU翻番,这一计划也包括推动经营超大型集装箱船船队。CK Yoo表示,该公司在2017年已实现年度增长计划,其集装箱量运力从2016年的300万TEU达到了2017年的400万TEU,并且重新获得客户的支持。 截止2017年12月31日,全球集装箱船订单为345艘,运力为267万TEU,其中大部分订单为大型集装箱船。其中包括达飞轮船的9艘22000TEU集装箱船和地中海航运的11艘22,000TEU集装箱船。另外,中远海运集团订购了28艘集装箱船,共计49.6万TEU,平均每艘船运力为17700TEU,这些新造船运力相当于该公司船队27.6%运力规模。 Alphaliner预测,2018年集装箱船交付量将增加至149万TEU,而拆解的老龄集装箱船预计减少至35万TEU,全年预计船队运力将增长5.6%Alphaliner数据显示,截止2017年底,全球集装箱船船队增长至5177艘船舶,2110万TEU运力,相比上年增长3.7%。 同时,Braemar ACM数据显示,2017年共有153艘集装箱船拆解,共计43.7万TEU,相比2016年的182艘,65.8万TEU有所减少。受益于2017年上半年集运需求及船舶租金增长,集装箱船船东不再将船舶拆解处理。 Alphaliner数据显示,2017年全年共有117艘集装箱船闲置处理,共计41.6万TEU,占全球船队的2%,达到自2015年以来的最低水平,明显低于2016年的400艘高峰。 有分析师表示,总体而言,2018 年集装箱船市场依然面临动荡的局势,尽管受需求疲软和季节性波动影响,但油价上涨和市场保护主义是2018-2019年间集运需求增长面临的额外威胁。

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