2017年全球航运业发生了明显积极的转变,尽管如此,2018年仍然需要​​保持谨慎的态度,来维持已经取得的进展。 BIMCO近日表示,自2016年年中以来,欧洲,亚洲和美洲的经济增长速度加快。而在2018年全球GDP增速略有上调,达到3.7%,高于2017年的3.6%。2018年,如果船舶继续维持减速航行,那么散运业基本市场平衡可能进一步改善。 对于集运业而言,2017年的改善将持续到2018年,而船队增长率似乎与需求增长持平,因此不会出现大规模的运价提升,来提高船队盈利。 对于油运业而言,受益于船队增长放缓,原油船和成品油船队存在潜在的上升空间。市场需求增长,石油消费的增加和价格套利等因素推动油运交易活动回升,这取决于一个更加平衡的石油市场。 BIMCO援引国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据称,预计全球GDP增长率在2018将维持2017年的增长水平,这一情况将持续至2022年。不过,世界贸易额增长率预计将从2017年的4.2%降至2018年的4.0%。 BIMCO表示,过去几年里航运业已经很好地适应了较低的市场需求增长水平。航运业接下来面临的挑战是继续适应需求水平不会大幅增加这一市场情况。2018年可能成为自2011年以来,首次航运业盈利回升的一年,但预计盈利不会快速回升。 BIMCO预测,2018年,散货船船东和运营商面临的挑战是继续保持船舶减速航行。预计2018年市场运力供应将增长1%左右,相比2017年的3.2%有所下降。2018年原油船市场净增长率将达到2%左右,相比2017年的5.1%有所下降,而成品油船市场运力供应增长率预计为1.8%,相比2017年的4.2%有所下降。与2017年相比,2018年由于运价上升,市场波动性减小,集运市场预计将出现一些反弹迹象。集装箱船市场2018年船队净增长率预计为4.1%,相比2017年的3.3%略有上升。

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